Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might think

by InigoMontoya, Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 09:54:54 PM EST

There's a lot of hoo-hah being written about Obama's momentum and the state of the race for the nomination between Hillary and Obama.  

I think it's really closer than most people realize and that Texas and Ohio might really tell the tale for Obama.

Analysis below the fold.

I compare Hillary's victories and offset them against Obama's.

California vs. Virginia, Louisiana, Utah, Nebraska, South Carolina, Kansas, Alaska, North Dakota, and D.C.

Tennessee vs. Washington.

Arizona vs. Minnesota

New Jersey vs. Georgia

New York vs. Illinois and Maryland

Massachusetts vs. Colorado and Delaware

New Mexico and New Hampshire vs. Alabama

Leaving Obama with a win in Idaho and a close victory in Missouri versus the real if not currently counted Clinton wins in Michigan and Florida.

It's not as good as I could wish but it's not bad, either, with Texas and Ohio coming up.  The only Clinton losses I really regret are Connecticut and Missouri.




Tags: Hillary, Obama, 2008, primaries, horse race (all tags)

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Re: Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might t (none / 0)

still waiting for the analysis .

Texas and Ohio is the final turning point of this campaign.

Hillary Clinton 's campaign will rise or fall on March 4.

If obama wins 1 of those states , she will drop out a couple of days after , i believe.

she would win both states.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:03:30 PM EST

I agree with you--she needs both (none / 0)

OH and TX, plus a convincing win in Pennsylvania in April.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree with you--she needs both (none / 0)

at this point I believe she would win all 3 , but 2 weeks is a long time in politics.

Anything can change.

I think the margins of the wins in both states would be a lot tighter than it is now.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:31:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

TX is going to be close (none / 0)

New poll today has HRC by 8. Obama is on the air and so is HRC. The cost to advertise a typical campaign in TX is about $1 million a day, so HRC looks to have enough cash for a serious presence on the air, while Obama may have enough to almost saturate the airwaves in Houston, DFW and the Valley.  

There is a reason that HRC has been in TX while Obama has been in Wisconsin. She will win OH by 10 - TX is going to be very close.


by johnnyappleseed on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 01:32:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TX is going to be close (none / 0)

which poll , any link


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 03:14:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might t (none / 0)

she can't win pledged delegates.

there are only two scenarios:

1. Obama wins TX and Clinton drops.

2. Clinton wins superdelegates and the party goes into all out civil war.


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:11:02 PM EST

Re: Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might t (none / 0)

Or Obama wins because of the disenfranchisement of Millions of Democrats in Florida and Michingan and the party goes into all out civil war.


by bdog on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:15:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might t (none / 0)

I already made my decision. If the DNC does not seat the FL and MI delegations, I will register as an Independent. I refuse to be part of a Party that disenfranchises 2 million people.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:19:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might t (none / 0)

Funny, if Hillary uses the SDs to overthrow the PV and PD leader, I, Bowers and MANY OTHERS will do the same thing.  That's the bigger travesty of democracy than the states who violated the rules.  FL and MI will be seated... the DNC isn't that fucking stupid to let this come to a credentials fight.  If they do, then our party as a whole is really fucked up in leadership.  It will come down to HOW they are seated.  IT WILL NOT be in the BEST CASE Hillary scenario, that much is a guarentee.  Nor do I think there will be new caucuses, which is a best case Obama scenario.  

Either they split evenly, or more likely, Florida goes as is and Obama gets all uncommitteds in MI, which gives Hillary more delegates but not enough to over throw Obama's PD count.  


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:34:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might t (none / 0)

I think at least Florida should definately be seated. No reason whatsoever for them not to because all three were on the ballot.

Michigan is more tricky because Edwards and Obama weren't on the ballot. But FL should definately get seated.


by RDemocrat on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:22:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Seating FL nets HRC about 30 delegates (none / 0)

Maybe up to 40. That's it.

Florida is going to be seated, probably as part of a compromise that sees MI re-vote.

All this is moot, however, if HRC doesn't win TX and OH. If she doesn't win both, her campaign is effectively over anyway and both delegations will be seated as is.


by johnnyappleseed on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 01:38:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might t (none / 0)

who disenfranchised those voters?

it wasn't the DNC it was the state parties, we OFFERED to redo the elections and florida is refusing.

they were told they wouldnt be seated and they called the DNC's bluff. too bad for them, maybe the populations of florida and michigan should get leadership with some foresight.

(how ironic by the way that Obama and Clinton would be fiercely campaigning in Florida right now)


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:23:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OMG (none / 0)

"...we OFFERED to redo the elections..."

Do you people hear what you're saying? Redo the elections? Are you freaking kidding me? Can we redo the 2000 election? Can we redo the 2004 election? Please, tell I can.

The DNC through out their rule book and stripped the states of ALL their delegates. It was not a sanction, it was outright disenfranchisement. So don't give me this "redo" bullshit.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:38:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG (none / 0)

first of all we CAN redo the elections, but Florida and Michigan refused.

maybe at some point you can answer the fact that Fl and MI were told what would happen and they moved thier elections forward anyway. They called our bluff and we decided to hold strong.

delegates weren't "stripped," Fl and MI took the gamble and they lost.

this wasn't some big DNC surprise, if you're looking to blame someone, blame the legislatures of FL and MI.


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:44:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG (none / 0)

Iowa and New Hampshire did just as Florida and Michigan did, but they were not disenfranchised. Florida has a Republican legislature who made the decision.

The DNC really messed up this time and it may very well cost Democrats the White House regardless of which candidate wins the nomination.


"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."
by LadyEagle on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:22:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

please (none / 0)

they moved ahead yes, however it isnt the same.

Granted, i think the entire primary system is fucked beyond belief, however the ultimatum that was posed to florida and michigan had to do with the ORDER of the primaries and not the actual dates.

i just want to reiterate that the DNC did not render this punishment after fl and mi made the decision.

the state parties disenfranchised their own voters by knowingly taking away their delegate influence in the convention because they thought this race would be determined by perception and early momentum. (i did too)

the other thing to consider is that for a while there politicos were talking about the very real possibility of Iowa starting in early december. at some point we need to take a stance on when these damn things start.

we are the only country in the world with continuous elections.


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So did South Carolina n/t (none / 0)


by Montague on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 02:07:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG (none / 0)

Well they probably refused because they didn't want a BS caucus that doesn't use a secret ballot.


by RDemocrat on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:23:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG (none / 0)

maybe you are unclear on the order of events regarding FL and MI...


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:52:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG (none / 0)

Actually, the Democratic party can choose to redo the elections in FLA and MICH if it so chooses. A party's selection of a candidate is NOT the same thing legally as a federal election. So to compare re-doing the 2000 election with redoing the selection of a party nominiee is inapt.
"No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." -Hillary Clinton
by fugazi on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:15:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG (none / 0)

There's no use in arguing for a revote. It's not going to happen. Granholm, Levin and Blanchard have all said no and FL legislature is controlled by Republicans who aren't going to fund another primary because the DNC screwed up.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:28:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG (none / 0)

Actually, no, the Democratic party in Florida can't redo the elections.   Elections are a state government function and the original election scheduling, and any "re-do", would be subject to the Republican governor and legislature.  In other words, "ain't happening."   And, fwiw, the reason we have so many caucuses is that too many states are too cheap-ass, on a bi-partisan basis, to have more inclusive primaries.

As for MI, they already voted.    Have a re-do?   NFW.   Obama took his name of the ballot, he can live with the consequences.  


by InigoMontoya on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:46:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG (none / 0)

MI decided to go move up after they were told their delegates would be stripped, they can live with the consequences.


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:15:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might t (none / 0)

There is another option. Clinton wins OH, TX, and PA. She wins winner-take-all caucus of PR and the DNC seats FL and MI. She wins other states in between. She wins the pledged delegates and the superdelegates decide the race.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:17:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might t (none / 0)

In the VERY unlikely scenario taht she wins the pledged delegates i say lets start the second clinton presidency, but it is almost impossible for that to happen


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:21:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Peurto Rico isn't winner take all (none / 0)

And Governor Acevedo - a Super Delegate - today endorsed Obama.

No way is HRC walking away with 63 delegates from PR. If it is in play, Obama probably won't walk away with 63 either, although he might because it is a caucus and Acevedo controls the party machinery.


by johnnyappleseed on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 01:51:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Hillary (none / 0)

If it's close the party elders are going to have to do something. The Rezko trial coming up may make the decision.

We can't go into the election with no chance of winning MI and FL. That situation has to be resolved soon after PA.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:15:26 PM EST

Re: Obama vs. Hillary (none / 0)

Rezko will have no outcome... or I should say about as much as HSU and InfoUSA and all the other Clinton scandals.  If you are banking your hope on THAT, you may as well quit now.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:37:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Hillary (none / 0)

Look at this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHsHM0la T8

Obama running from the media. Obama has lied to you guys about Rezko. The FBI mole is telling a different story.

And those old chestnuts are a joke. If you think anyone cares about the Keating Five or Whitewater you need your head examined.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:00:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

Neither of them can reach the magic number even if they ran the board. However, one or the other of them can certainly take the lead. CNN did a deep anaysis last night. It is possible for either Obama or Clinton to take the lead at this point. it is far from over.

If you think it is over, or that Clinton will pull out after Texas and Ohio...you are sadly mistaken.


by americanincanada on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 10:18:20 PM EST

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

It is nearly impossible for Hillary to take the lead in pledged delegates. She would need blowouts in all the remaining primaries to do so. Her only realistic chance of winning the nomination is if the super delegates override the pledged delegate count.
"No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." -Hillary Clinton
by fugazi on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

Nope, what's the difference now? 20 delegates or 50 delegates? Should we deny the winner of all the big states and swing states the nomination? That's what you are saying.

Obama may win the nomination but he's playing to lose the general election.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:31:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

The difference in Pledged Delegates is over a 100 as you know.  


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:38:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

oh please. what swing state did he lose by more than 10 or 15 points?

have you seen the polls that say 85% of dems would be happy with either?

he will only run stronger in swing states, the recent polling out of CO and NH prove my point.


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:42:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

FL. And you're moving the bar to 10 to 15 pts?


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:01:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

ya know whats funny? i made a mental note to write "and i know you're gonna say florida."

he didnt campaign there! sorry his name has been spoken in political circles for the past 15 years...

of course thats the margin! we are talking about the kind of hatred of a candidate which would imply a large percentage of dems wouldn't vote for them if they were the nominee. All polls show the exact opposite! we love our candidates.


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:10:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

He ran ads there. Even if he campaigned, the demographics are against him, hence his willingness to already concede it in the general election.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:14:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

nobody concedes florida.


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:16:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

Cmon, everyone in Florida with a T.V. had to have seen the fawning over Obama and Clinton. Edwards was the one they didn't see. I wanted Edwards to win there but Clinton did fair and square. Saying Florida didn't know Obama is ridiculous. They voted for Clinton instead.


by RDemocrat on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:28:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

The difference is over 100. Stop reading the MyDD counter and visit CNN sometime.


by animated on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hardly over (none / 0)

Actually they could hit the number but it would take blowouts of EPIC proportions.  If one were to achieve those blowouts (80-20), the other would drop way before this.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:39:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If HRC loses either TX or OH she's done (none / 0)

She may not pull out, but she will have no money and effectively have to go dark. And you'll see a wave of SD's come to Obama, led by Pelosi.

HRC has to win March 4th decisively.


by johnnyappleseed on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 01:46:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WRONG (none / 0)

That is factually incorrect.


by americanincanada on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:18:49 PM EST

Re: WRONG (none / 0)

what is?


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:43:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

those aren't the only states left that she (none / 0)

will win.  One of the other is PR where she will probably get all of the delegates- its fundamentally winner take all- I think 48 delegates...


by linc on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 11:47:39 PM EST

Re: those aren't the only states left that she (none / 0)

She will win my state of Kentucky in May. Obama trailed McCain by 19 pts not long ago here.


by RDemocrat on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:19:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Puerto Rico is not winner take all (none / 0)

It is a caucus, with a 15% minimum threshold. They usually vote as a block because they are last and the nomination has been decided.

But HRC is in trouble here as well, since today Governor Acevedo endorsed Obama. Acevedo is a Super Delegate and he controls the machine. Both candidates actively sought his endorsement.

If it's still going - which it probably won't be - expect both candidates to travel there. Puerto RIco has 63 delegates.


by johnnyappleseed on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 01:19:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re (none / 0)

Obama is like Bush!

"Don't count the votes in Florida so I can be Preznit!"


by rossinatl on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 01:11:13 AM EST

Re: Obama vs. Hillary race closer than you might t (none / 0)

HRC should demand a re-vote (a primary) in Florida and Michigan, or she will go third-party.


by Bob H on Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 08:25:49 AM EST


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