I disagree with you on Michigan, and on Ohio.  Conservatively, those two go blue.

Let's wait for the post-primary polls. I think we'll see a boost.

You have to look at the polls. they are underreporting the Black vote in Michigan. They show Obama getting only 60 percent of the vote. It won't be close. And once the Hillary supporters come to their senses and realize we can not allow the Republicans to destroy this Country any more It will be a landslide.

that's one thing i never understood about the polling in the primary.  how was it that BO was beating HRC on some days and yet losing to JM while HRC was beating him at the same time?  v. strange.

That state hasn't gone blue in at least four elections, and they aren't deluded enough to ascribe their economic conditions to the Democrats after eight years of GOP-cheerled outsourcing.

Nope. Obama wins easily in November. Not even close. You heard it here first.

I live in NH and I think we can move it to Obama. The state has gotten bluer since the last election cycle. Former Gov. Shaheen (D) is giving Sununu a real run here. I know it's early but she has consistently out polled him. So I think we have a shot.

The  "Electoral College" is out, the "New Map" is in. Bwahahaha!

Obama will win the popular vote and even more handily, possibly on a 51-48 margin.   Throughout the South, a lot of 20 point electoral losses will turn into 10 point electoral losses.

"Are you saying that the Democratic party will be crying the blues because they will expect the popular vote to count???"

I don't think there's many people clueless enough to think the nationwide popular vote trumps the Electoral College vote.

Obama with about 294.

Flips to Obama:
Iowa
Ohio
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico

Flips to McCain:
New Hampshire

Hottest battlegrounds:
Nevada
Virginia
Missouri
Pennsylvania
Michigan
North Carolina

Note on Ohio:
On its face it should be a battleground, but I think the GOP lable is so poisned there that it will be easier for us than it looks at this point.

The LA Times reported that Obama will probably not take federal matching funds. If he keeps up his fundraising pace, they won't have to make any decisions based on money. For example, they can go into Omaha and swipe an electoral vote from Nebraska since EV's are based on Congressional districts there.

Obama wins NH easily + one EV in NE for 270 as a starting point (WITHOUT MI or OH or FL).

Anyone who thinks Ohio will go McCain is to be ignored. The Republican brand in Ohio is in the sewer.

and less ADD than I develop the EV predictions.

But I'll add my thoughts for what they are worth (not much, but statistical analysis may not be worth much more).

The GOP brand seems to have less value than I have ever seen either for the two major parties.  GOP pundits like Sean Hannity can't stop foaming at the mouth about how fundamentally screwed the GOP is long enough to properly attack this "Black Muslim Manchurian Secret Communist Ulta-Liberal Democrat".  Even when they do, the paragraph usually ends with an "and if John McCain doesn't run screaming to the Far Right we all better get used to saying 'President Elect B. Hussein Obama!'".

The attack ads they ran in MS-01 contained all of the Terrible Things we expect them to say, and that didn't work out well for them.

You can all tell me what the forecasts based on past races and demographics mean, but for my part I would suggest also looking at those numbers with 5% less than the lowest historical turnout for the GOP candidate.

Just my thoughts.

-chris

I would look at states the way a serious investor looks at stocks. Look at fundafentals. Ohio looks weak for Obama, but the Republican brand is toxic. Florida looks within reach, but there are really too many Republicans there.

States with big upside potential for us, electoral votes notwithstanding:

North Dakota
Arizona (McCain is unusually weak for a home state candidate).
Texas (yes I said it)
Kansas

Which means you predict that McCain will win by 271-267.

To be frank, I have no idea how this election is going to go. At the intellectual level, I believe that Obama is going to win with around 320 electoral votes. However, I have this feeling that McCain is going to pick a woman as VP, and that the strategy is going to work. Many older women are going to flock to McCain giving him victories in Pennslyvania, New Hampshire, Maine and even Colorado.

Now, no matter what happens, I can claim that I was right.

The Dems are going to crush the Republicans this fall. Many don't understand just how much the electorate has changed during the past four years. In 2004 the Dems and GOP got roughly the same numbers in party id. Today the Dems are ahead by 8 points, and there has been a similar movement from the GOP to the Indie ranks. On election day think there will be some Dem defections, but people forget that everyone who voted during this Dem primary season constitutes less than 30% of the electorate (and the hard-core supporters for each candidate, at most, are 5%).  So here is how I think it will play out.

Obama will win every state carried by Kerry in 2004.  He'll also win Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Ohio.  That'll be bring him up to 305.  And dependin upon how turnout goes, and the Bob Barr factor, he'll also have a shot at carrying Florida (50/50), North Carolina (30/70), Nevada (50/50), Missouri (50/50), and an elector in Nebraska (50/50).  And if the dam breaks, and Indies decide they're fed up with the Republicans (ie. we get more than 2/3rds), Obama will run the map (he'll get all of the above plus states which will surprise everyone, eg. Mississippi, Georgia, Alaska).

And what I'm expecting, btw, is that the dam will break.  This will be a repudiating election similar to what happened in 1980 (but this won't show up in the polls until the last two weeks, which is what happened during the Carter/Reagan race).  Voters will decide that they've lost confidence in the GOP in the most basic way.  If one believes these polls about party id, the right track/wrong course question, etc., they're 90% there now (which is why the Dems are winning in places like Mississippi).

Biggest shocker of the night:  when Connecticut goes for McCain.

Bush to Obama:

CO, NM, IA, MO, IN, OH, VA, NV

Kerry to McCain:

NH

And a many more performances like McCain's speech on Tuesday and it could be an epic landslide.

From Electoral-vote.com:

We are going into this really strong.  It is our job to make sure that the map only gets better.  While the Obama people can make the case for him, Clintonistas such as myself, Clintonistas who aren't completely on board with him, can make the case against .  That is the dream ticket.

Hi folks,

Again, you're all far deeper in this than I.  Let me offer up this analysis and ask how you think it works into your analysis.

McCain Needs `Vision' to Beat Historic Odds Favoring Obama in '08

Despite polls showing him doing surprisingly well against Obama, historical patterns show he's in perilous territory.

Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University has developed an "electoral barometer" based on just three variables for predicting election outcomes, and it suggests that McCain is all but certainly set to lose this year.

In an article last week on University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Web site, Abramowitz declared that "it appears very likely that the Republican party is dealing with the dreaded `triple whammy' in 2008: an unpopular president, a weak economy and a second-term election."

Abramowitz has tracked the effect of those variables on the last 15 presidential elections and found that they accurately predicted the popular vote outcome in 14 and came close in the 15th.

The formula adds the incumbent president's net approval rating (approval minus disapproval), the second-quarter election-year GDP growth rate multiplied by five (emphasizing the importance of the economy) and then (factoring in time-for-a-change sentiment) subtracts 25 points if the in-party is finishing a second term.

Bush's net approval now stands at minus 40. The first-quarter growth rate was 0.6 percent and Bush is finishing eight years, meaning that this year's electoral barometer currently stands at minus 62.

If such a number holds, it "would predict a decisive defeat for the Republican presidential candidate," Abramowitz wrote. "The only election since World War II with a score in this range was 1980," when "Jimmy Carter suffered the worst defeat for an incumbent president since Herbert Hoover in 1932."

The second worst occurred in 1952, when Democrat Adlai Stevenson tried to succeed Harry S. Truman with a minus 50 score and lost the popular vote by 11 points to Dwight D. Eisenhower.

The Abramowitz barometer is a short-cut variation on American University professor Allan Lichtman's famed "13 Keys to the Presidency," which adds such factors as wars, candidate charisma, scandal and the incumbent party's performance in off-year elections to the economy and incumbency.

When Lichtman published the latest edition of his book early this year, he flatly predicted that "the Democratic candidate will capture the White House in 2008 no matter the choice of a nominee."

Democrats have advantages Lichtman couldn't anticipate, such as a charismatic nominee, now giving them eight of the 13 "keys" -- plenty enough to win.

Historical models are invented to be broken, of course. But they give an indication of the odds McCain has to overcome.

As his and Obama's speeches Tuesday night showed, McCain is not overcoming them.

I can't find an electoral map that has McCain ahead. All the prediction markets are pretty solid. O is trending upwards in the 538 map.

Granted, it's pretty far out to assign much weight to the polls, but anyone know what's sourcing the diarist's conclusion?